The future trend in the stock market will finally get defined by the aggregate earnings expectations from individual companies in an economy.
News That MattersNot all News Matters. This is where we share news with you that can impact your money.
We were expecting the RBI governor to step in and provide liquidity and rate cuts. The RBI governor did just that today. He declared a string of measures like cutting the Repo and the reverse repo rates, cutting the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points, injecting liquidity of Rs 3.74 lakh crores in the system etc. All this should cause the interest rates to go down (and hence bond prices to go up). At the time of writing this piece, the interest rates were indeed down.
Risk shows up infrequently, but it is high impact. This is why one must always be aware. In the current set of events, it’s the risk attached to bond investing which has had a greater impact than equity investing. Understanding both the risk of bond investing i.e., credit risk and the risk in equity investing i.e., risk of quality, are important.
The potential economic impact of the Coronavirus outbreak affected markets significantly towards the end of February. Another big challenge faced by the economy is continuing weakness in GDP growth combined with a relatively high fiscal deficit. Some of the key initiatives like lower corporate tax rates are expected to kick start the investment cycle by the industry
Our analysis suggests that many of the larger companies, leading the Nifty, continue to grow at rates higher than nominal GDP growth and are trading at valuations that are reasonable. Moreover, as and when the economy recovers, growth rates will be stronger than long term expected growth rates as companies start re-stocking their inventories.