Many people currently seem to be asking this question – “How’s the market doing? Is it a good time to? When will the markets turn?”. People believe that there is a strong need to time the market.
In our opinion, if you’re asking these questions you are not– you are speculating, or worse, gambling. Quite often we notice people confuse one for the other and, more importantly, back it up with their hard earned money. So, how do you differentiate between these choices?
Speculation is easier to understand
Assume two friends sit together for a game of cards. Both bet Rs 100, each. At the end of the game, assuming that one of them lost Rs 100, the other person would have made Rs 100. Mathematically, it is a zero sum game. The total gains will equal the total losses.
Many ‘avenues’ that one sees around us are actually speculative in nature, i.e. not all participants can make money at the end of the day. One makes some money at the cost of someone else. Day trading or currency trading is like this. You hope to benefit from the other person making an error of judgement.
Gambling, on the other hand is speculation with a negative outcome for all. If two people walk into a casino, and assuming there were only two visitors that day, if one person loses Rs 100, the other person need not have made Rs 100. His gain will be much less than Rs 100, say close to Rs 70. The balance Rs 30 will go to the casino. A Lottery is similar. All parties involved, except the casino, walk away collectively poorer.
The first job of any investor is to completely shy away from all activities which resemble gambling. Chances are that you will lose money.
is a positive sum game
The premise ofis a positive outcome for all involved. If two people Rs 100 each, both can take home a sum greater than Rs 200, on a combined basis. All options need to be evaluated against this basic principle.
is neither a game of chance, nor a bet on the other person being a fool. Contrary to popular belief, equity market tends to be a positive sum game over time. One buys into slices of companies which are growing and earning profits, which over time get paid out to shareholders. Companies which fail the test of their ability to make profits, and paying them to shareholders, are not good . They are more of a gamble.
How do I?
How does an ordinary person find out which companies are investment grade and which are not? The answer is mutual funds. This is where professional managers with years of experience make these decisions. A further advantage with mutual funds is that you can buy into slices of many companies with small sums of money.
The question then is why do people gamble at all, if the odds are stacked so much against them?
We suspect it is that dream of immediate, quick, and large gains for some. For others it is the adrenaline rush of winning. We can also ask the same question about. Why is it that people don’t always choose good avenues? It is probably because is a path that requires lots of patience and discipline.
Ask yourself. Are you an investor, a speculator, or a gambler?