Watching carefully. Holding firmly.

Dear Reader,

There is an old saying, often attributed to King Solomon, that he wore on a ring: This too shall pass. It was meant to humble him in moments of triumph and comfort him in moments of despair.

I have thought about it often these past few weeks.

Because what we are living through right now is genuinely uncomfortable. The headlines remain tense. Markets have been volatile. The situation in the Middle East has not simplified. If anything, the complexity has deepened. And the honest answer to the question, “When will this end?” is that nobody knows.

What I do know is that periods like this do pass. They always have.

But knowing that does not make the waiting easy. So let me tell you exactly where things stand.

What the watchpoints are telling us

In my March letter, I mentioned three specific indicators we would monitor closely: crude oil prices, the rupee, and equity market levels. I said that if any of the thresholds we were watching were crossed, we would be in touch.

Here is an honest account of where each stands.

Crude has remained elevated, but it has not consistently breached the $120 level that would signal a more serious inflationary shock. The rupee touched Rs 95 before the RBI stepped in with targeted measures that helped stabilise it. The Sensex and Nifty were down around 9% since the crisis began, before the ceasefire news lifted the markets and led to a recovery. It’s uncomfortable, certainly, but still within correction territory, not crisis territory.

There has been real pressure. But not yet the kind that warrants a change in long-term posture. That distinction matters more than it might seem.

As I was finalising this letter, a tentative ceasefire was announced between the parties to the conflict. Markets have welcomed this development. However, we want to be measured about what this means. 

A ceasefire, at this stage, is fragile. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains an evolving one and there is no clarity yet on whether shipping will resume freely or what the timeline for energy supply normalisation looks like for India and other import-dependent economies. The energy risk has not passed. 

What the ceasefire does offer is a reason for cautious optimism, not a signal to change course. We are watching this development as closely as everything else. Our experience suggests that the markets bottom out before the actual event and hence there is another reason for cautious optimism.

What the professionals are doing, and what we are doing on your behalf

Part of our job, the part that does not show up in a dashboard, is holding the people managing your money to account.

Over the past few weeks, we have had direct, candid conversations with the fund managers across the portfolios your wealth is invested in. These were not mere courtesy calls. We had substantive conversations about what they are seeing, what they are doing, and why. You should not have to take it on faith that your money is being managed thoughtfully. We asked the uncomfortable questions on your behalf.

Here is what we found.

They see the recent dip as having opened the opportunity for buying high-quality businesses which are now available at valuations that simply were not there six months ago. Sector exposures are being re-examined. Scenario plans are being updated as the situation develops.

We came away reassured by the discipline we saw. Not because everything is fine, it isn’t, but because the people managing your money are doing exactly what disciplined professionals should be doing in an environment like this. Just informed, disciplined motion rather than stillness or panic.

What this means for you

A month ago, I asked you to hold. The fact that you did matters more than it might feel right now.

Stay with your planned allocation. Your debt holdings, gold, and liquidity buffers are not passengers in your portfolio. They are doing their job right now. Your SIPs are quietly accumulating more units at lower prices. That is not a loss. That is the plan doing precisely what it was designed to do.

In periods like this, the most expensive mistakes are almost always emotional. Patience is easy to praise and hard to practise and that is precisely why it matters.

The investors who will look back on this period well will rarely be the ones who predicted the outcome. They will be the ones who stayed focused on their goals when the noise was loudest.

This too shall pass. We will make sure you are well positioned for when it does.

Warm regards,
Atul Shinghal
CEO and Founder, Scripbox

P.S. Everything above applies, by necessity, to the majority. If you are looking at your allocation and wondering whether it still reflects where you are and where you want to go, that conversation is worth having. It starts with a call. We are here.